CONFIDENCE INDICES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RELATIONSHIP IN TURKEY
TÜRKİYE’DE GÜVEN ENDEKSLERİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ

Author : Musa ÖZTÜRK
Number of pages : 59-79

Abstract

Human is an emotional being and this enables mankind to act outside of rationality patterns in decisions such as consumption, production, savings, and investment. Future expectations and a sense of trust in structural and cyclical developments can, directly and indirectly, affect decisions taken. For this reason, the development of the expectations and the level of trust is implicit and explicitly investigated by the community and the authorities. In the study, the relationship between confidence indices and economic growth in Turkey examined with structural VAR methodology and questioned by Granger causality test and variance decomposition method. According to the analysis findings, it is determined that there is bidirectional causality between the economic confidence index and economic growth. In this relationship; the real sector confidence index, service sector confidence index, and construction industry confidence indices are determinative. Moreover, it was found that trust in the construction sector has a causal relationship with other sectoral confidence indices. In light of these findings; It has been concluded that the magic of inclusive and sustainable growth is trust, so the political authority must ensure and maintain trust.

Keywords

Economic confidence index, consumer confidence index, real sector confidence index, sectors confidence indices, SVAR

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